Below are some of the research papers I have written. You can also read my research statement here.
Housing Sales and Construction Responses to COVID-19 : Evidence from Shelter-in-Place and Eviction Moratoria in the U.S.
Published at Real Estate Economics
Abstract: The goal of this paper is to analyze the county-level impact of public policies related to COVID-19 on the housing market in U.S. Aimed at reducing the spread of the virus, different states throughout the U.S. enacted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as shelter-in-place and eviction moratoria, in different months and for varied stretches throughout 2020 and 2021. Shelter-in-place orders could potentially limit the ability of home-buyers and sellers to interact as well as they could pre-COVID, introducing frictions in the process of selling houses. Prolonged and over-lapping eviction moratoria could dampen the construction of multi-family units and encourage the landlords to sell rented-out apartments. This paper attempts to investigate if and how these interventions causally impacted the county-level housing sales and building permits approval in the U.S. The paper estimates the average treatment effect of these orders using a traditional generalized difference-in-difference estimator and a more recent variation of the estimator that is more suited multiple treatment groups with staggered treatment introductions and withdrawals. The results show that shelter-in-place is associated with significantly smaller year-on-year changes in sales of single-family houses, condominiums and the collection of all residences. Selective moratoria on eviction hearings and judgements are also found to be associated with smaller year-on-year changes in multi-family building permit approvals.
Published at Real Estate Economics
Abstract: The goal of this paper is to analyze the county-level impact of public policies related to COVID-19 on the housing market in U.S. Aimed at reducing the spread of the virus, different states throughout the U.S. enacted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as shelter-in-place and eviction moratoria, in different months and for varied stretches throughout 2020 and 2021. Shelter-in-place orders could potentially limit the ability of home-buyers and sellers to interact as well as they could pre-COVID, introducing frictions in the process of selling houses. Prolonged and over-lapping eviction moratoria could dampen the construction of multi-family units and encourage the landlords to sell rented-out apartments. This paper attempts to investigate if and how these interventions causally impacted the county-level housing sales and building permits approval in the U.S. The paper estimates the average treatment effect of these orders using a traditional generalized difference-in-difference estimator and a more recent variation of the estimator that is more suited multiple treatment groups with staggered treatment introductions and withdrawals. The results show that shelter-in-place is associated with significantly smaller year-on-year changes in sales of single-family houses, condominiums and the collection of all residences. Selective moratoria on eviction hearings and judgements are also found to be associated with smaller year-on-year changes in multi-family building permit approvals.
Intercity Impacts of Work-from-Home with Both Remote and Non-Remote Workers
with Jan K. Brueckner
Published at Journal of Housing Economics: COVID-19 and Housing Market special issue
Abstract: This paper summarizes the results from generalizing the simple two-city WFH model of Brueckner, Kahn and Lin (2021) through the addition of a group of non-remote workers, who must live in the city where they work. The results show that the main qualitative conclusions of BKL regarding the intercity effects of WFH are unaffected by this modification, with WFH yielding the same aggregate population and employment changes in the two cities and the same house-price and wage effects as in the simpler model. This conclusion is useful because it establishes the robustness of BKL’s highly parsimonious model.
with Jan K. Brueckner
Published at Journal of Housing Economics: COVID-19 and Housing Market special issue
Abstract: This paper summarizes the results from generalizing the simple two-city WFH model of Brueckner, Kahn and Lin (2021) through the addition of a group of non-remote workers, who must live in the city where they work. The results show that the main qualitative conclusions of BKL regarding the intercity effects of WFH are unaffected by this modification, with WFH yielding the same aggregate population and employment changes in the two cities and the same house-price and wage effects as in the simpler model. This conclusion is useful because it establishes the robustness of BKL’s highly parsimonious model.
A Third Generation of Rent Control? Evidence from San Diego’s Rental Stock
with Stuart Gabriel
Working Paper
Abstract: Rent control has often been shown to reduce rental supply, lower quality, and harm landlords, but prior evidence comes from strict local ordinances. California’s statewide law effective January 2020 imposed a lighter cap only in jurisdictions without stricter regulations. Using permit, transaction and rental supply data from San Diego, this paper evaluates the impact of this new rent control policy. Results show that unlike traditional findings, this new generation of rent-control produced more subdued effects and did not replicate the substantial negative outcomes reported in the earlier literature, highlighting the importance of policy design and intensity in shaping rent-control consequences.
with Stuart Gabriel
Working Paper
Abstract: Rent control has often been shown to reduce rental supply, lower quality, and harm landlords, but prior evidence comes from strict local ordinances. California’s statewide law effective January 2020 imposed a lighter cap only in jurisdictions without stricter regulations. Using permit, transaction and rental supply data from San Diego, this paper evaluates the impact of this new rent control policy. Results show that unlike traditional findings, this new generation of rent-control produced more subdued effects and did not replicate the substantial negative outcomes reported in the earlier literature, highlighting the importance of policy design and intensity in shaping rent-control consequences.
Housing Availability and Affordability: Evidence from a National Estimate and Effects of a Local Rezoning
with Norbert Michel and Jerome Famularo
Working Paper
Abstract: During the past few years, many groups have suggested that the United States is experiencing a housing crisis marked by a supply deficit and affordability problems. This paper argues for a better understanding of housing availability and the drivers of house price appreciation. It further contributes to the debate in two ways. First, it provides an alternative estimate of housing availability that suggests the U.S. housing market has not been in a crisis during the past two decades. Second, to estimate the price response of relaxing regulatory restrictions in a city, it provides a robust statistical analysis of zoning changes in Denver in 2010. While there is some evidence supporting a positive effect of rezoning, the findings do not suggest that increased supply is the sole determinant of price effects. These results do not imply, in any way, that local governments should refrain from the types of reforms that will reduce regulatory costs and increase construction. They do, however, suggest that officials should temper their expectations for exactly how much added construction will slow the growth in home prices. The findings implore the need for more refined research on housing market dynamics—especially on the demand side—to precede policy prescriptions aimed at solving housing-related problems through increased construction.
with Norbert Michel and Jerome Famularo
Working Paper
Abstract: During the past few years, many groups have suggested that the United States is experiencing a housing crisis marked by a supply deficit and affordability problems. This paper argues for a better understanding of housing availability and the drivers of house price appreciation. It further contributes to the debate in two ways. First, it provides an alternative estimate of housing availability that suggests the U.S. housing market has not been in a crisis during the past two decades. Second, to estimate the price response of relaxing regulatory restrictions in a city, it provides a robust statistical analysis of zoning changes in Denver in 2010. While there is some evidence supporting a positive effect of rezoning, the findings do not suggest that increased supply is the sole determinant of price effects. These results do not imply, in any way, that local governments should refrain from the types of reforms that will reduce regulatory costs and increase construction. They do, however, suggest that officials should temper their expectations for exactly how much added construction will slow the growth in home prices. The findings implore the need for more refined research on housing market dynamics—especially on the demand side—to precede policy prescriptions aimed at solving housing-related problems through increased construction.
Moratorium on non-renewals of fire insurance and Home Values: Zip-code level evidence from California
Working Paper
Abstract: Aimed at protecting homeowners from lack of insurance coverage spurred by wildfire events, the California Department of Insurance started enacting zipcode level one-year moratoria on non- renewal of fire insurance in 2019. Across zip codes, these moratorium orders were enacted for different lengths of time, starting and ending non-uniformly in different months between 2019 to 2024. Employing the moratorium information and a widely-used home value index tracking monthly changes in home values, the current paper attempts to estimate the impact of the moratorium on changes in home-valuation at the zip-code level. Across sub-samples based on risk-heterogeneity, a treatment status is assigned to locations that had the moratorium in effect, and the evolution of home values are compared within places subject to similar risk levels. The paper estimates the average treatment effect of the moratoria using a recent variation of the traditional TWFE estimator that is more suited to multiple treatment groups with staggered treatment introductions and withdrawals. The study provides evidence that relative to areas that did not have the protection of moratorium, immediately following the enactment of the moratorium, average home values seem to increase in relatively-high-risk locations. This effect continues to increase as the time-frame expands, possibly implying that the potential damage in relatively-high-risk areas play a less pronounced role in demand for housing over the sense of security that comes with continued insurance renewal. Although more muted, home values are found to reduce in very-high-risk zipcodes.
Working Paper
Abstract: Aimed at protecting homeowners from lack of insurance coverage spurred by wildfire events, the California Department of Insurance started enacting zipcode level one-year moratoria on non- renewal of fire insurance in 2019. Across zip codes, these moratorium orders were enacted for different lengths of time, starting and ending non-uniformly in different months between 2019 to 2024. Employing the moratorium information and a widely-used home value index tracking monthly changes in home values, the current paper attempts to estimate the impact of the moratorium on changes in home-valuation at the zip-code level. Across sub-samples based on risk-heterogeneity, a treatment status is assigned to locations that had the moratorium in effect, and the evolution of home values are compared within places subject to similar risk levels. The paper estimates the average treatment effect of the moratoria using a recent variation of the traditional TWFE estimator that is more suited to multiple treatment groups with staggered treatment introductions and withdrawals. The study provides evidence that relative to areas that did not have the protection of moratorium, immediately following the enactment of the moratorium, average home values seem to increase in relatively-high-risk locations. This effect continues to increase as the time-frame expands, possibly implying that the potential damage in relatively-high-risk areas play a less pronounced role in demand for housing over the sense of security that comes with continued insurance renewal. Although more muted, home values are found to reduce in very-high-risk zipcodes.
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Allen Matkins | Anderson Forecast| Commercial Real Estate Survey
with Jerry Nickelsburg Analytical Report, UCLA Anderson Forecast The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey semi-annually compiles the views of commercial real estate developers, owners, and investors with respect to markets three years hence. This report summarizes findings from the summer survey of 2024. |
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Costs in Construction - Indices and Forecasts
Working Project, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Construction in California is a topic of interest amongst several entities attempting to make lucrative business decisions involving the state’s voluminous real estate market. With recent changes in costs associated with construction that significantly deviate from general trends in state or nation-wide CPI, accurate forecast of outcomes related to construction in California has become a very attractive product. The current project attempts to conceive comprehensive indices and independent forecasts of construction costs and activities in California. The project is at a developmental stage with the ultimate goal of producing accurate forecasts of a carefully engineered, comprehensive, and exhaustive set of construction-related indices. Towards that, what follows is a brief outline of the scope, data, methodology and short-term, in-process forecasts of several pieces of California construction.
Working Project, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Construction in California is a topic of interest amongst several entities attempting to make lucrative business decisions involving the state’s voluminous real estate market. With recent changes in costs associated with construction that significantly deviate from general trends in state or nation-wide CPI, accurate forecast of outcomes related to construction in California has become a very attractive product. The current project attempts to conceive comprehensive indices and independent forecasts of construction costs and activities in California. The project is at a developmental stage with the ultimate goal of producing accurate forecasts of a carefully engineered, comprehensive, and exhaustive set of construction-related indices. Towards that, what follows is a brief outline of the scope, data, methodology and short-term, in-process forecasts of several pieces of California construction.
Wealth, Property Tax Arbitrage, and California
with Jerry Nickelsburg, Working Paper
Abstract: States fund government with different constellations of taxes. In the state of California there are high marginal tax rates on top income earners and low effective property tax rates. In some other states the opposite is true. For high-net-worth individuals this presents an opportunity to arbitrage state tax laws as they become multi-state partial residents. This creates a misallocation of housing resources through the transfer of the cost of state services to the non-arbitrageurs. The paper explores a theoretical model of tax arbitrage, supported by empirical evidence of home vacancies being correlated to tax rank differentials across counties. Eliminating the wedge between multi-state partial residents as a way of improving the allocation of housing resources in the case of the State of California is proposed.
with Jerry Nickelsburg, Working Paper
Abstract: States fund government with different constellations of taxes. In the state of California there are high marginal tax rates on top income earners and low effective property tax rates. In some other states the opposite is true. For high-net-worth individuals this presents an opportunity to arbitrage state tax laws as they become multi-state partial residents. This creates a misallocation of housing resources through the transfer of the cost of state services to the non-arbitrageurs. The paper explores a theoretical model of tax arbitrage, supported by empirical evidence of home vacancies being correlated to tax rank differentials across counties. Eliminating the wedge between multi-state partial residents as a way of improving the allocation of housing resources in the case of the State of California is proposed.
A survey of California’s income inequality and migration
Working Project
Abstract: According to the 2021 Gini coefficient listing, California is the fourth most unequal state in the country and while literature exists on recent California-specific income dispersion and historic changes in variation in income across the country, limited studies explore California’s income inequality across decades. In terms of population mobility, California has also experienced sustained loss of domestic migrants starting 1989. While many studies have analyzed this exodus, this current study attempts to examine if California’s income inequality and migration are related to each other. Heterogeneity amongst emigration groups is also explored to compare demographics of emigrants and their correlation to the changing income inequality.
Working Project
Abstract: According to the 2021 Gini coefficient listing, California is the fourth most unequal state in the country and while literature exists on recent California-specific income dispersion and historic changes in variation in income across the country, limited studies explore California’s income inequality across decades. In terms of population mobility, California has also experienced sustained loss of domestic migrants starting 1989. While many studies have analyzed this exodus, this current study attempts to examine if California’s income inequality and migration are related to each other. Heterogeneity amongst emigration groups is also explored to compare demographics of emigrants and their correlation to the changing income inequality.
Does moratorium on non-renewals of fire insurance impact insurance premiums:
Zip-code level evidence from California
Working Project
Abstract: Wildfire incidences and the consequent withdrawal of residential insurance offerings by multiple insurance companies from across California preceded state-mandated insurance cancellation and non-renewal moratoria in certain zip-codes deemed to be prone to wildfire risk. Employing the moratorium information and annual reports on fire-insurance claims, the current paper attempts to estimate the impact of the moratorium on changes in insurance premium at the zip-code level. Within samples of zip-codes that encountered claims from fire damage, a treatment status is assigned to locations that had the moratorium in effect. Subsequently, a generalized difference-in-difference model is used to provide suggestive evidence of the average treatment effect of the moratoria on insurance premiums, controlling for time and place fixed effects. The study provides evidence that, among multiple policies, those related to owner-occupied non-catastrophic structural fire damage may be associated with higher premiums in locations that had the moratorium in place, relative to those that did not.
Zip-code level evidence from California
Working Project
Abstract: Wildfire incidences and the consequent withdrawal of residential insurance offerings by multiple insurance companies from across California preceded state-mandated insurance cancellation and non-renewal moratoria in certain zip-codes deemed to be prone to wildfire risk. Employing the moratorium information and annual reports on fire-insurance claims, the current paper attempts to estimate the impact of the moratorium on changes in insurance premium at the zip-code level. Within samples of zip-codes that encountered claims from fire damage, a treatment status is assigned to locations that had the moratorium in effect. Subsequently, a generalized difference-in-difference model is used to provide suggestive evidence of the average treatment effect of the moratoria on insurance premiums, controlling for time and place fixed effects. The study provides evidence that, among multiple policies, those related to owner-occupied non-catastrophic structural fire damage may be associated with higher premiums in locations that had the moratorium in place, relative to those that did not.
The Intercity Impacts of Work-from-Home in a Spatial Hedonic Model with Remote and Non-Remote Workers
Abstract: This paper formulates a spatial hedonic equilibrium model that shows inter-city impacts of the introduction of work-from-home. Following Brueckner, Kahn and Lin (2021), the paper attempts to theoretically study how the introduction of work-from-home, which allows workers to relocate across cities while keeping their original jobs, impacts housing prices, population and employment levels. Extending Brueckner et al. (2021), the current paper divides the workforce into two types of workers, remote and non-remote, to allow for a more realistic work-from-home model. Additionally, the model uses explicit functional forms for production and utility, resulting in closed-form equilibrium solutions conditional on the extent of productivity advantages, amenity advantages, and degree of complementarity between worker types. The current paper aims to examine whether the main results in Brueckner et al. (2021) still hold in the modified model.
Abstract: This paper formulates a spatial hedonic equilibrium model that shows inter-city impacts of the introduction of work-from-home. Following Brueckner, Kahn and Lin (2021), the paper attempts to theoretically study how the introduction of work-from-home, which allows workers to relocate across cities while keeping their original jobs, impacts housing prices, population and employment levels. Extending Brueckner et al. (2021), the current paper divides the workforce into two types of workers, remote and non-remote, to allow for a more realistic work-from-home model. Additionally, the model uses explicit functional forms for production and utility, resulting in closed-form equilibrium solutions conditional on the extent of productivity advantages, amenity advantages, and degree of complementarity between worker types. The current paper aims to examine whether the main results in Brueckner et al. (2021) still hold in the modified model.
Socio-Demographic Factors Correlating with Police-Involved Deaths: City-level Evidence from the US
Abstract: Officer-involved deaths have been affecting the United States increasingly over the past half century, to the point where they have defined the course one of the largest social movements of the current era. Although many attempts have been and are being made at delineating patterns, trends and causes of police-involved deaths, a dearth of accurately defined and documented incidents of these fatalities has long impeded research in this area. The current paper aims to answer if and how community characteristics at a city level correlate to fatal police encounters over the period 2000-2010. Panel and cumulative datasets on police-involved deaths from FatalEncounters.org, along with a relevant set of socio-demographic controls, are used in a negative binomial regression model to find factors that might affect the count of officer-involved deaths that occurred in a city. It is found that, for the longitudinal panel data, the Black/African-American population and the Hispanic/Latino population in a city along with police employment, the level of crime and median income constitute significant determinants of officer-involved deaths. In the cumulative (cross-section data only) counterpart, the same factors are significant determinants of deaths.
Abstract: Officer-involved deaths have been affecting the United States increasingly over the past half century, to the point where they have defined the course one of the largest social movements of the current era. Although many attempts have been and are being made at delineating patterns, trends and causes of police-involved deaths, a dearth of accurately defined and documented incidents of these fatalities has long impeded research in this area. The current paper aims to answer if and how community characteristics at a city level correlate to fatal police encounters over the period 2000-2010. Panel and cumulative datasets on police-involved deaths from FatalEncounters.org, along with a relevant set of socio-demographic controls, are used in a negative binomial regression model to find factors that might affect the count of officer-involved deaths that occurred in a city. It is found that, for the longitudinal panel data, the Black/African-American population and the Hispanic/Latino population in a city along with police employment, the level of crime and median income constitute significant determinants of officer-involved deaths. In the cumulative (cross-section data only) counterpart, the same factors are significant determinants of deaths.
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